No deal

The phrase “no-deal” is assuming a rather specific meaning as the exit from the EU grinds towards a conclusion – the present deadline for achieving a withdrawal agreement is the end of October. If we fail to achieve consensus by that date, there are three outcomes:

  • We agree terms for the withdrawal agreement,
  • We kick the deadline down the road, or
  • We leave with no agreement.

Recent debates on this topic would seem to indicate that the first option is unlikely, the second option doubtful which promotes the no-deal option to the top spot, more likely.

Although the majority of smaller businesses in the UK do not have direct trading links with firms in the EU, it does not stretch imagination by many degrees to conceive that our expanded supply chains (customers of our customers, suppliers of our suppliers) are EU businesses.

This inevitable conclusion means that if there is a no-deal outcome, and if this triggers a disruption in supply lines, then we all need to sit up and take notice.

Many firms who trade with the EU have already invested in strategies to secure their business interests in the event that we leave the EU with no-deal and have to cope with World Trade Organisation tariffs. Other practical difficulties, moving goods across the channel for example, require more imaginative planning.

It is instructive that the only detailed instructions published by government departments cover the no-deal scenario. We recommend that all businesses take a look at this material. See:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario#conclusion.

We are working with clients to run risk assessment tests and create plans that will help them manage a no-deal transition. If you would like to avail yourself of this advice, please call asap. This topic is now assuming greater prominence and there really is little time left to get prepared…

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